New Long-Term Earthquake Forecast for California


USGS Newsroom

Released: 3/10/2015

A new 2015 California earthquake forecast by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners revises scientific estimates for the chances of having large earthquakes over the next several decades.

The Third Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, or UCERF3, improves upon previous models by incorporating the latest data on the state’s complex system of active geological faults, as well as new methods for translating these data into earthquake likelihoods.

The study confirms many previous findings, sheds new light on how the future earthquakes will likely be distributed across the state and estimates how big those earthquakes might be.



Three-dimensional perspective view of the likelihood that each region of California will experience a magnitude 6.7 or larger earthquake in the next 30 years (6.7 matches the magnitude of the 1994 Northridge earthquake, and 30 years is the typical duration of a homeowner mortgage). (High resolution image)



The Third California Earthquake Rupture Forecast (UCERF3)

Quick Information: 

UCERF3 Time-Dependent Model:

UCERF3 Time-Independent Model:

Implementation Instructions (for technical users)